Thursday, September 18, 2014

My Scottish Independence vote prediction

Here’s my prediction, so I call look silly once the results are in.

My prediction is that No will win. Here’s why:

  • Young people want independence and old people don’t. Combine that with the fact that old people vote and young people don’t, the cause is probably doomed. Every time I hear about how this and that poll isn’t accurate because they don’t reach “mobile phone only” voters, the results end up being that the mobile phone voters get distracted and forget to vote.
  • A yes for independence would be a victory for democracy. Remember that this is the EU and we don’t want any of that pesky democracy stuff. Especially referendums on important questions.
  • If the result is so close, do you think that the UK government doesn’t have a plan to change a small number of votes? Wouldn’t that be said if a couple strategically place mobile phone towers started being unreliable and all those young people who can’t navigate without their phone can’t find the polling booth.
  • The bookies are only giving 4:1 odds for a yes win.
  • Having the vote during the week means that retired people have an advantage over younger working people.

I think it would be really cool if the yes side would win, just to stick it to the EU and show that people can actually vote and make a difference. Of course, that is not the world we live in.

3 comments:

sp said...

Well I'm glad you were totally wrong on this one. Democracy seems to be something other than what you think.

santcugat said...

Huh? I said I thought they would vote no, but I thought it would have been really cool if they had voted yes.

Is there a planet Catalunya where the Scottish just voted for independence?

Juan said...

Ok.. so let's consider interest from a bank:

- I read that in Spain you pay max 27% (if you get 24k euros or more), and it does not depend on the rest of your income

http://www.abc.es/economia/20130325/abci-impuestos-pagan-ahorradores-espanoles-201303221757.html

- In USA, you pay it as regular income tax bracket.

So, for most of cases, you pay more in the USA.

But you could have some uncommon situations, if your income is *only* , for instance, $15k of bank interests. You would pay something between 21%-25% in Spain; and something between 10-15% in USA.

Did I get it right?