Monday, December 16, 2013

Independence referendum trick question

Is there anyone dumb enough to think that you can win independence by tricking your population into voting yes? (in this case, not voting no)

Apparently that’s the idea, since only about 40% of people living in Catalonia support being an independent country vs a federal arrangement or the status quo.

By structuring the referendum as:

  • Do you want Catalonia to be a State? (capital letters on State)
  • If yes, do you want that State to be an independent State?

the ERC claims that if someone answered “no” to both questions, it would be an invalid vote and not count.

I have an even better idea for a question referendum:

If you don’t want Catalonia to be an independent country, please write the current president of Spain’s second last name in the space provided: ______________

Guaranteed win! Worst case, you can count all the blank votes as pro-independence!


trebots said...

I've asked a couple of clowns involved and they can't tell me what the first question means (Catalonia is already a state in the federal sense), but I understand that what they are asking is something like, "Do all good boys deserve favour?"

Anonymous said...

Sure. You are lost in Sant Cugat and in Catalonia too!
More than 55% of population in Catalonia want the independence from Spain while only the 35% are against it so they don't want the question to be voted (rest of % are undefined).
You may not like that, but does not give you the right to lie!
The only argument for those who defend that Catalonia is that Spain won a war 300 years ago. That's the same that saying Catalans must start a war (and win it) if they want to be independent.
What about giving democracy a chance?

santcugat said...

I don't know where you get your statistics from, but I haven't seen any poll that shows more than 50% support for independence (the not part of Spain anymore kind).

poll from Novermber last year showed 31% in favor of independence, 17% in favor of the status quo and 40% in favor of federalism.

Anonymous said...

Well, that may be because of the kind of newspapers you read. Anyway, if you want to be sure of what Catalan population thinks, just let them vote.

Anonymous said...

A partir de la segona onada de 2011, l'estudi del CEO féu una pregunta més concreta: I més concretament, si demà es fes un referèndum per decidir la independència de Catalunya, vostè què faria?
Data A favor (%) En contra (%) Abstenció (%) Altres respostes (%) No ho sap (%) No contesta (%)
2a onada 2011[22] 42,9 28,2 23,3 0,5 4,4 0,8
3a onada 2011[23] 45,4 24,7 23,8 0,6 4,6 1,0
1a onada 2012[24] 44,6 24,7 24,2 1,0 4,6 0,9
2a onada 2012[25] 51,1 21,1 21,1 1,0 4,7 1,1
3a onada 2012[26] 57,0 20,5 14,3 0,6 6,2 1,5
1a onada 2013[27] 54,7 20,7 17,0 1,1 5,4 1,0
2a onada 2013[27] 55,6 23,4 15,3 0,6 3,8 1,3
3a onada 2013[27] 54,7 22,1 15,7 1,3 4,9 1,1

Anonymous said...

Sovint, El Periódico de Catalunya fa enquestes sobre la posició respecte a un referèndum de la independència de Catalunya.

Mes Sí (%) No (%) En blanc (%) No votaria (%) NS/NC (%)
Abril 2007 44,9 40,0 - - -
Octubre 2007[38] 33,9 43,9 9,8 12,5
Desembre 2009[39] 39,0 40,6 2,0 7,0 11,4
Juny 2010[40] 48,1 35,3 2,6 6,1 7,9
Gener 2012[41][42] 53,6 32,0 - - -
Setembre 2012[43] 49,5 48,0[44] 2,5 - -
Octubre 2012[45] 57 ? - - -
Gener 2013[46] 56,9 35 - - 8,2
Maig 2013[47] 57,8 36 - - 6,2

santcugat said...

Look, I'm in favor of having a referendum. People should be able to decide their future in a democratic fashion. Supporting the right of people to vote isn't the same as agreeing with a particular outcome.

Still, you haven't shown me a single poll that shows support for an independent Catalonia above 50%.

El Periodico has 47.5% in favor.

2) l'estudi del CEO has 48.5% in % support an independent state, given alternatives.

Also, the l'estudi del CEO survey is not proportional, so it doesn't reflect the results of a real referendum. Girona and Tarragona have 2x the weight as Barcelona, and Lleida has 4x.